Issue 146

What now for the Middle East?

09th October 2006

Key developments across the Middle East in recent days and weeks have left the region vulnerable to fresh outbreaks of violence.

Talks on Iran's nuclear program have been moved to London as the UK and US push for sanctions to be imposed against the country for defiance if UN and IAEA instructions to cease all nuclear activities. Russia and China insist that a diplomatic course will yield more effective results.

Nuclear power is popular within the country, and the countries President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, insists that it is Iran's right to develop the technology. Israel, however, is understandably nervous about Iran possessing any form of nuclear technology since president Ahmadinejad called for "Israel to be wiped off the face of the earth" last year.

Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State, is in northern Iraq to hold talks with Kurdish leaders amidst fresh tensions over oil and the ongoing sectarian strife across much of the country.

The Kurds have been signing oil exploration deals with foreign companies, stirring unease inside the national government in Baghdad. Rice is keen to gain assurances that the Kurds remain committed to autonomy within a unified, federal Iraq. Despite claims from the UK and US governments that Iraq is not in a state of civil war, civilian casualties from insurgent violence are now in the realm of 800 per week. The United States continues to take casualties in Iraq at an alarmingly high rate as the country gears up for midterm elections in November.

The Israeli government is facing questions from the country's High Court after it refused to set up a state commission to examine the conduct of Israeli forces in the war against Lebanon earlier this year. The Israeli cabinet has approved a series of Government run teams to examine whether mistakes were made in any aspects of the military and political operations. More than 1100 people, mostly civilians, were killed during the 34 day conflict drawing international condemnation.

The Palestinian government has been suspended by Hamas, the majority party, following attacks on its leaders, allegedly by political rivals Fatah. Clashes began between rival groups of gunmen in the Gaza strip, leading to the deaths of at least 8 and the wounding of 60.

Meanwhile, in Afghanistan the NATO mission is facing a race against time to further engage Taliban insurgents before winter sets in, halting all movement around the country. British ground forces have been engaged in heavy fighting, most noticeably in Helmand province, although this has been hampered by a critical lack of helicopters, Hercules transport aircraft and close air support; mostly as a result of poor government planning.

Tim Sculthorpe