Issue 147

Dawn of a new nuclear world? - Daniel Shaw Comments

23rd October 2006

Nuclear weapons, a topic on the lips of every statesman at the moment. Iran wants them, North Korea has them, and if I was sat in Tokyo or Seoul right now I would be bricking myself.

However, is the spread of nuclear weapons such a problem if it is confined to responsible states? It is undoubtable that North Korea should not possess nuclear weapons with its erratic leadership ,plus the fact that it can't even afford to feed its own population. Likewise, Iran should really consider its attitude towards Israel before it gets nuclear weapons - pissing off a state that possesses 200-odd nuclear weapons with a history of using military strikes when feeling even remotely threatened isn't a good idea, as the fantastically successful strike against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 proved.

It's very hard to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. The blueprints can be transported in electronic form in the blink of an eye, the services of disaffected scientists can be bought, and if a state is cunning it can spread out its facilities to prevent any form of military strike.

When it comes to cunning, President Ahmadinejad of Iran is Mister Fox. There is now practically nothing that can be done to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Despite all his threats towards Israel, it is practically certain that Iranian scientists will produce a bomb before the end of the decade, and at the moment nothing can really be done about it. Sanctions will merely increase resentment towards the West, and any threats towards Iran with military force from the US will be automatically cut short by the fact that the Americans are mired down next door in Iraq, a country with one tenth the population.

So what is to be done about Iran's nuclear ambitions and increasing resentment towards the West? One solution - controversial as it may sound - is to simply allow them about 200 of the damn things. At a stroke Iran has the prestige that it desires and the West will no longer be the bad guys. Plus the West could draw concessions out of Iran such as democracy for nuclear weapons. Israel sure as hell wouldn't like it, and it'll never happen anyway, but it might just make the Middle East a more stable place.

North Korea, however, just cannot and should not be trusted with nuclear weapons, and as such any UN sanctions must be prudent , otherwise the Far East will become destabilised.

Dan Shaw