Blogs
Milburn speaks
- 28 Jan 2007 16:45
A couple of weeks ago I commented that Alan Milburn, the former Health Secretary, might be a decent outside bet to succeed Tony Blair as Prime Minister. In today's Sunday Times, 28 January, he's written an article about a proposed education plan to sort out the most failing schools. In a nutshell, he want's to offer the parents of children at the 88 schools who have been in special measures for more than 12 months, an education 'voucher' worth 150% of the cost of that the education in the failing school. Parent's then can direct their child to an alternative, more successful school, even if that means the successful school has to go above it's admission targets. The idea is to make the failing school buck up it's ideas, and put more choice into the system for parents.
Read the article here: Times Online
Sounds like a plausible idea to me, certainly quite New Labour and very Tony Blair, and equally, it sounds like something Gordon Brown - and a fair number of Labour backbenchers - would hate. If it helps get kids out of failing schools, and raise standards in those schools though, it's worth a look.
Enough with the chaos already
- 25 Jan 2007 15:00
Alan Johnson, the Education Secretary is having a busy day – by lunchtime he's already managed to weigh in on whether or not schools should teach 'Britishness' and insisting that Catholic adoption agencies should not secure an opt out from equality legislation that says they would have to consider homosexual couples wanting to adopt a child in the same light as heterosexual couples.
It's all symptomatic of the chaos at the top of Government with ministers spitting out statements on anything and everything, usually because they're one of the many contenders for Prescott's job. For six months, there's been no unified message – the odd Home Office crisis here, an arrest in the cash for honours investigation there.
While this is all very entertaining for those in the opposition, random chaos does not governing make. Where is the policy, the legislation, the ideas, all promised in the Queen's speech? Brown's off touring India trying to make himself look Prime Ministerial, presumably while presumably leaving the likes of Ed Balls to practice actually running the Treasury.
Amusing as it is to watch the Government self destruct like this, surely it's time to get back to pummelling them on the issues? We might end up with an election in the next twelve months, and but nobody's fired the starting gun on the policy debate. It's surely time for Cameron to step up with some of these policy reviews – there's a decent chance there's going to be some good stuff in there, and he can leave the government in his wake.
As far as today debate goes; 'Britishness' is what you learn when you study history: it's not an abstract concept that can be taught in a specified period. Study and learn about the past to see forwards. And it's surely just common sense that adoption agencies should be compelled to look at application from all couples seeking children, and to look at them objectively as potential parents. Taking a partisan line that rules out an entire class of people just because a group doesn't like the way they conduct their private lives sounds ridiculous to me: of course there shouldn't be opt outs.
Politics in 2007
- 14 Jan 2007 21:25
Sitting here in the New Year, it's apparent that 2007 is going to be a big one politically. It appears certain that we're going to see a new Prime Minister in Downing Street – quite possibly two – and there are elections to both the Welsh assembly and Scottish parliament. It's perfectly conceivable that Labour could lose its grip on power during the year, though there are several possible scenarios.
The biggest change will be in the Labour leadership, which is predicted to go to Gordon Brown. He's doing everything right; laying out lots of principles about how he'd run Government, pledging to be nicer abroad, to be independent – all very Tony Blair in 1995, and perhaps more significantly, very David Cameron in 2006. Brown knows he has to soften up his image, because we all see him as the hard nosed Chancellor.
To a point, he's doing well, but there are problems with his bid. Within his own party there continue to be murmurs about a possible challenge by John Reid for the leadership. This changes daily, as every time he starts getting traction, another scandal emerges as the Home Office coughs up the ball again.
Watch out for Alan Milburn, the former Health Secretary, this year. Very talented, very clever, he left a massively difficult job with credit to spend time with his young family, apparently genuinely, back in 2003. He's been very quiet since, but he represents everything Brown doesn't to the Labour constituency that realised the Blair way was the only way.
Nevertheless, it seems reasonably safe to predict Brown will win the leadership, albeit perhaps bloodied. He'll have to choose when to call an election. It seems very possible he could call immediately, challenging Cameron to move beyond his good principles and sound bites to something substantial much more quickly than on the three year plan the Conservatives seem to be working on. Call an election this year, Brown might win, he might get five years as PM. But then again, he could lose, and it's an awful gamble.
Wait however, and the dangers might be greater still. Cameron has a year's start in building a national profile as a potential Prime Minister, and the voters are responding – anybody reading the opinion polls can see that. It looks unlikely Brown could win a general election if he waits, because it's looking like Cameron's simply better at playing the political game with a wide lens.
Plenty will depend on the local and Welsh and Scottish elections. Labour are certain to take a beating, that's to be expected. It'll depend where the votes go as to whether or Brown might dare to call an immediate general election and gamble on his chance at power.
The Liberal Democrats appear to have been primed for an election. As the attempted coup against Blair progressed back in September, Ming Campbell went on TV and said he was putting his party on an election footing. Steve Webb MP is writing their manifesto right now. If the votes in May swing toward the Lib Dems and not the Conservatives, then Brown might pluck up the courage to run with it, in the knowledge he may have a Labour/Liberal coalition in his pocket.
If the votes swing to the Tories, Brown would be faced with a bad electoral map, and it would undoubtedly be a gamble to take on Cameron on the back of a first successful major electoral test. Having said that, it could be the only way to he'll get the chance to be Prime Minister for more than a couple of years.
Tim SculthorpeDeputy Chief Editor
Tim Sculthorpe is deputy chief editor working hard to raise the bar here at the waterfront.
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