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Politics in 2007

• Tim Sculthorpe
• 14 Jan 2007 21:25

Sitting here in the New Year, it's apparent that 2007 is going to be a big one politically. It appears certain that we're going to see a new Prime Minister in Downing Street – quite possibly two – and there are elections to both the Welsh assembly and Scottish parliament. It's perfectly conceivable that Labour could lose its grip on power during the year, though there are several possible scenarios.

The biggest change will be in the Labour leadership, which is predicted to go to Gordon Brown. He's doing everything right; laying out lots of principles about how he'd run Government, pledging to be nicer abroad, to be independent – all very Tony Blair in 1995, and perhaps more significantly, very David Cameron in 2006. Brown knows he has to soften up his image, because we all see him as the hard nosed Chancellor.

To a point, he's doing well, but there are problems with his bid. Within his own party there continue to be murmurs about a possible challenge by John Reid for the leadership. This changes daily, as every time he starts getting traction, another scandal emerges as the Home Office coughs up the ball again.

Watch out for Alan Milburn, the former Health Secretary, this year. Very talented, very clever, he left a massively difficult job with credit to spend time with his young family, apparently genuinely, back in 2003. He's been very quiet since, but he represents everything Brown doesn't to the Labour constituency that realised the Blair way was the only way.

Nevertheless, it seems reasonably safe to predict Brown will win the leadership, albeit perhaps bloodied. He'll have to choose when to call an election. It seems very possible he could call immediately, challenging Cameron to move beyond his good principles and sound bites to something substantial much more quickly than on the three year plan the Conservatives seem to be working on. Call an election this year, Brown might win, he might get five years as PM. But then again, he could lose, and it's an awful gamble.

Wait however, and the dangers might be greater still. Cameron has a year's start in building a national profile as a potential Prime Minister, and the voters are responding – anybody reading the opinion polls can see that. It looks unlikely Brown could win a general election if he waits, because it's looking like Cameron's simply better at playing the political game with a wide lens.

Plenty will depend on the local and Welsh and Scottish elections. Labour are certain to take a beating, that's to be expected. It'll depend where the votes go as to whether or Brown might dare to call an immediate general election and gamble on his chance at power.

The Liberal Democrats appear to have been primed for an election. As the attempted coup against Blair progressed back in September, Ming Campbell went on TV and said he was putting his party on an election footing. Steve Webb MP is writing their manifesto right now. If the votes in May swing toward the Lib Dems and not the Conservatives, then Brown might pluck up the courage to run with it, in the knowledge he may have a Labour/Liberal coalition in his pocket.

If the votes swing to the Tories, Brown would be faced with a bad electoral map, and it would undoubtedly be a gamble to take on Cameron on the back of a first successful major electoral test. Having said that, it could be the only way to he'll get the chance to be Prime Minister for more than a couple of years.

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